Heat waves alter international tourist flows in Spain

Editorial/Ginés Miñano

The research, conducted by María Dolores Sánchez Sánchez, Carmen de Pablos Heredero, and José Luis Montes Botella, examines the impact of extreme weather events on tourist behavior through a comparative analysis of July 2022, marked by a heat wave, and July 2023, without such an event. Using a quantitative methodology based on structural equation modeling, the study analyzes the relationships between country of origin, tourist destination, type of accommodation, and number of overnight stays.

The study is based on data from the FRONTUR survey by the National Institute of Statistics and climate records from the State Meteorological Agency, with a sample of 6.556 tourists from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Netherlands. The results show that heat waves significantly influence destination choices and reduce the length of stays, especially in island regions such as the Balearic Islands.

The study highlights a notable decrease in travel from the UK during periods of extreme heat, pointing to a growing preference for destinations with milder temperatures. However, no significant effects were detected on the type of accommodation booked. These behavioral changes reinforce the consolidation of so-called "cool-cations" as an emerging trend in international tourism.

Among the main conclusions, the authors emphasize the need for sun and beach destinations to incorporate climate adaptation strategies, improve thermal comfort, and strengthen their services to maintain their appeal. The inclusion of heat waves in predictive models is presented as a key tool for planning and designing tourism policies in a context of climate change.